Det kommer inte att fungera. Så varför offra våra demokratiska värderingar, för att inte tala om våra privatliv, genom att låta staten höra allt vi säger?

Länken ovan går till en artikel i Wired, skriven av säkerhetsexperten Bruce Schneier, som i korta ordalag handlar om att data mining – alltså det som FRA tänkt sig syssla med – inte fungerar i de sammanhangen. Med lite enkel matematik, som till och med Reinfeldt & Co borde kunna hänga med i, visar han att antalet falsklarm kommer bli så absurt högt att de verkliga varningssignalerna som eventuellt kan tänkas finnas helt enkelt försvinner i mängden.

This unrealistically accurate system will generate 1 billion false alarms for every real terrorist plot it uncovers. Every day of every year, the police will have to investigate 27 million potential plots in order to find the one real terrorist plot per month. Raise that false-positive accuracy to an absurd 99.9999 percent and you’re still chasing 2,750 false alarms per day — but that will inevitably raise your false negatives, and you’re going to miss some of those 10 real plots.

This isn’t anything new. In statistics, it’s called the “base rate fallacy,” and it applies in other domains as well. For example, even highly accurate medical tests are useless as diagnostic tools if the incidence of the disease is rare in the general population. Terrorist attacks are also rare, any “test” is going to result in an endless stream of false alarms.

Siffrorna är anpassade efter amerikanska förhållanden, men principen är så klart densamma oavsett vilket land ett sådant här system införs i.

Schneiers slutsats är att när avvägningen görs mellan systemets kostnader, ekonomiska såväl som medborgarrättsliga, och dess potentiella fördelar – så är det inte värt det i slutändan.

The promise of data mining is compelling, and convinces many. But it’s wrong. We’re not going to find terrorist plots through systems like this, and we’re going to waste valuable resources chasing down false alarms.

Detta är extra intressant eftersom det är just den här avvägningen som de regimtrogna menar att vi FRA-kritiker inte bryr oss om. Jag vill hävda motsatsen.

349 Svar på “Det finns tusen argument mot FRA. Det här är det enda du egentligen behöver.”
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